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On opinions and facts
May. 25th, 2013 01:54 pmEveryone's entitled to one's opinions. But do opinions trump hard facts? And what's the difference, anyway?
Suppose I'm an e-mail friend of Ann, Bob, and Cassandra. Ann is a Londoner. Bob has spent all his life in Taiwan. Cassandra is from Sahara desert, and never been elsewhere. Now, Bob and Cassie come to London to visit Ann. I ask them three about the weather in London. They say it's raining. I then ask a second question, "How hard is it raining?"
That's where opinions come into the picture. Ann compares the rain she's observing right now to other rains she's seen, and answers, "Just a regular London rain." Bob compares it to monsoon rains, and types, "Oh, a few droplets now and then." Cassie, who's never seen this much water at once before, says, "My, it's a real flood!"
None of them is trying to deceive me, but their reports differ. Why? Because they're based on their previous experiences. And that's what a well-formed opinion is, an assessment based on one's previous experience. As their experiences differ, so do their opinions. Another problem is, I've never been to London, Taiwan, or Sahara, so there's no common point of reference.
Luckily, we all have buckets of the same size and form. I ask A, B, and C to put their buckets out in the rain for one minute and measure the water that falls into their buckets. This time, Ann says, "78 grams," Bob says, "74 grams," and Cass, "75 grams." (Mind you, no real world measurements are perfect. Still, these reports differ much less than the previous ones.) Now, I can use my shower and my bucket to recreate this far away rain and see for myself what it is like. And to form my own opinion, of course, just like everybody else, comparing what I see to my own notions of "regular rain", "a few droplets", and "flood". More than that, everybody with a Standard Bucket, a timer, and a shower can reproduce this rain to a degree of precision, and make their own comparisons.
So, opinions based on your personal experiences are all right as long as you evaluate your own new experiences and plan your own life. Alas, they don't work quite as well across different human beings or cultures. So if you want me to do or stop doing something, come with facts or stay off my lawn.
Opinions based on hearsay are even worse. Questioning some of them, however, is once again illegal in Russia, so I have to leave this part of analysis to the readers.
Suppose I'm an e-mail friend of Ann, Bob, and Cassandra. Ann is a Londoner. Bob has spent all his life in Taiwan. Cassandra is from Sahara desert, and never been elsewhere. Now, Bob and Cassie come to London to visit Ann. I ask them three about the weather in London. They say it's raining. I then ask a second question, "How hard is it raining?"
That's where opinions come into the picture. Ann compares the rain she's observing right now to other rains she's seen, and answers, "Just a regular London rain." Bob compares it to monsoon rains, and types, "Oh, a few droplets now and then." Cassie, who's never seen this much water at once before, says, "My, it's a real flood!"
None of them is trying to deceive me, but their reports differ. Why? Because they're based on their previous experiences. And that's what a well-formed opinion is, an assessment based on one's previous experience. As their experiences differ, so do their opinions. Another problem is, I've never been to London, Taiwan, or Sahara, so there's no common point of reference.
Luckily, we all have buckets of the same size and form. I ask A, B, and C to put their buckets out in the rain for one minute and measure the water that falls into their buckets. This time, Ann says, "78 grams," Bob says, "74 grams," and Cass, "75 grams." (Mind you, no real world measurements are perfect. Still, these reports differ much less than the previous ones.) Now, I can use my shower and my bucket to recreate this far away rain and see for myself what it is like. And to form my own opinion, of course, just like everybody else, comparing what I see to my own notions of "regular rain", "a few droplets", and "flood". More than that, everybody with a Standard Bucket, a timer, and a shower can reproduce this rain to a degree of precision, and make their own comparisons.
So, opinions based on your personal experiences are all right as long as you evaluate your own new experiences and plan your own life. Alas, they don't work quite as well across different human beings or cultures. So if you want me to do or stop doing something, come with facts or stay off my lawn.
Opinions based on hearsay are even worse. Questioning some of them, however, is once again illegal in Russia, so I have to leave this part of analysis to the readers.
